Macro outlook for this week: Trump overturns the table, April 2 may become a watershed for global assets

On March 29 that next Wednesday (April 2) is the day for Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement, which is of global concern. Prior to this, investors were more cautious because it was unclear what specific tariffs Trump would implement. Bank of America foreign exchange analysts Athanasios Vamvakidis and Claudio Piron said in a report that the risks are balanced before next week’s deadline. The imposition of tariffs on specific products is already a market expectation. Comprehensive tariffs would be a negative surprise, and the dollar is not expected to continue to strengthen in this case. Against the backdrop of rising risk aversion in the market, gold has repeatedly set new highs this week, with the historical record rising to $3,086.75 per ounce, setting the 18th record high this year, and the quarterly increase reached 17%, the largest since 1986. The following are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

• Monday 21:45, US Chicago PMI for March
• Tuesday 21:45, US March S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value
• Wednesday 20:15, US March ADP employment data
• ECB President Lagarde will deliver a speech at 01:00 on Thursday
• At 19:30 on Thursday, the European Central Bank will release the minutes of its March monetary policy meeting.
• Thursday 19:30, US Challenger Enterprise Layoffs in March
• At 00:00 on Friday, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Jefferson delivered a speech
• Friday 20:30, U.S. unemployment rate in March, U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in March, U.S. average hourly wage annual/monthly rate in March
• Fed Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at 23:25 on Friday