One in four S&P 500 firms will hold Bitcoin by 2030

Around a quarter of firms listed on the S&P 500 would have invested in Bitcoin by 2030, with treasury managers fearing they could lose their jobs if they missed out on potential Bitcoin gains, a partner at a tech-focused financial advisory firm said.

“I anticipate that by 2030, a quarter of the S&P 500 will have BTC somewhere on their balance sheets as a long-term asset,” Elliot Chun, a partner at Architect Partners, said in a March 28 blog post.

Chun said this shift will be driven by treasury managers feeling compelled to at least experiment with Bitcoin.

“If you tried it and it worked, you’re a genius. If you tried it and it didn’t work, you at least tried. But if you didn’t try and have no good reason, your job may be at risk.”

Strategy (MSTR) is the largest corporate Bitcoin holder of all 89 public-traded firms that currently have Bitcoin on their balance sheets, according to data from BitcoinTreasuries.NET.NET.

One more firm could be added to the list after GameStop’s $1.3 billion convertible notes offering on March 26, which the firm intends to use to buy its first batch of Bitcoin.

Tesla and Block are the only S&P 500-listed firms that hold Bitcoin — meaning at least another 123 S&P 500 firms would need to invest in Bitcoin by 2030 for Chun’s prediction to be correct.

Tech investors and execs expect Bitcoin to keep rising

Bitcoin could soar to the $500,000 to $1,000,000 range or even higher by 2030, according to the likes of ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Block CEO Jack Dorsey.

Meanwhile, firms adopting Bitcoin treasury strategies have seen a positive impact on their share prices. Strategy’s stock has surged over 2,000% since its first Bitcoin investment on Aug. 20, 2020 — massively outperforming Bitcoin (781.1%) and the S&P 500 (64.8%) over that stretch.

But there’s a big difference between firms that adopt Bitcoin for treasury diversification and risk management and those that restructure their entire business models to become the Bitcoin treasury leader within their industries, Chun said.

“Companies who are implementing this strategy in hopes of replicating MSTR’s performance are positioning for disappointment,” said Chun, who referred to Strategy as a “one-of-one.”

MSTR initially provided US asset managers exposure to Bitcoin at a time when they couldn’t hold Bitcoin directly. That changed when the Securities and Exchange Commission approved a handful of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund applications on Jan. 10, 2024.

Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio breaks 12-year support as gold price hits a record $3K

Despite the increased adoption, Bitcoin used as a treasury asset remains an “unproven strategy” for firms hoping it will hedge against US dollar and fiat inflation or diversify their treasury for risk management purposes, Chun said.

That said, Bitcoin is still a more flexible treasury asset than gold, according to Chun, who pointed out the challenges in storing and moving gold bars.

On the other hand, Bitcoin is a digital commodity that is GAAP-recognized as a tangible asset with a fungible and liquid profile, he added.

Earlier this month, crypto asset manager Bitwise launched Bitwise Bitcoin Standard Corporations ETF, which seeks to track companies with at least 1,000 Bitcoin in their corporate treasuries.